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LIVE: Election 2017 – Rolling Results

LIVE: Election 2017 – Rolling Results

🕔08.Jun 2017

Good evening. Welcome to the Chamberlain Files rolling blog coverage of the count for the 2017 General Election.

Editor Kevin Johnson is in the chair (as long as you keep throwing him sweets, chocolate and coffee). 

We will be monitoring the results as they come in, with a particular eye on Birmingham and West Midlands seats.

We’ll start in earnest with the BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll when that is released at 10.00pm.

Strap yourselves in, it could be a bumpy ride.

In the meantime, you can find our pieces on the election here.


9.00pm

Exit Poll – find out about how it’s put together from Prof David Firth at the Universty of Warwick who is part of the team led by the prince of polling, Prof John Curtice.


Please keep refreshing for updates. 

10.00pm

Exit Poll headline: Overall majority possible, not certain.

314 Con

266 Lab

34 SNP

14 LD

___

10.04pm

Tories would be short by 12.

There are a lot of close calls in the make up of the exit poll.

____

10.09pm

If the poll is anywhere near right, it would be sensational.

No one will leave this election result without quite a lot of egg on their face. Will that mainly be Theresa May or the pollsters?

Come on Prof Curtice – explain yourself and convince us.

___

10.17pm

We’re still in the world of IFs before the exit poll turns into any results, but….

___

10.29pm

___

10.48pm

This is the calm before the Sunderland/Newcastle storm.

The shock of the exit poll is palpable among politicians and pundits.

Prof John Curtice is on. Not before time.

He rules out two things, assuming the Exit Poll is not too far out (ie. is somewhere around its central projection).

The PM has failed to achieve her primary objective.

Labour has failed to win a majority.

___

10.56pm

Two other thoughts to fill the pre-actual results vacuum.

On the exit poll basis, we can expect another election in the next 6 months.

I wouldn’t want to be in Nick Timothy’s (Joint Chief of Staff to the PM) shoes right now. (But, they might turn out to be more comfortable later).

___

10.58pm

Birmingham Labour insider tells me the exit poll doesn’t reflect their experience on the phones.

___

11.00pm

First result – Newcastle Central pip Sunderland to the post. Much like in football.

Lab hold for Chi Onwwurah.

Turnout 67%.

Con to Lab 2.1% swing.

___

11.06pm

Houghton and Sunderland South – LAB hold.

UKIP falling dramatically away, as expected.

____

11.10pm

Not going well in Sunderland.

Out of the Premiership.

Lost first result of the night honours to Newcastle – of all places.

Can’t seem to make a microphone work.

It will be so much better in Birmingham.

Swing LAB to CON in Houghton and Sunderland South was 3.5%, by the way.

___

11.23pm

Prof Curtice on again, explaining how the Exit Poll works. Worth looking toward the top of this page for a link to a piece with much more about how it works.

____

11.15pm

Lots of talk of a Labour scalp in Hastings, with Home Secretary Amber Rudd at risk.

That’s what you get for standing in for the boss at a TV leaders debate.

LAB hold Sunderland Central.

___

11.49pm

LAB to CON swing of 2.3% in Sunderland Central as Mr Corbyn’s party holds the seat.

____

11.57pm

LAB hold Newcastle East.

CON hold Swindon North

___

0004

That bloke Kevin Johnson reckons

___

0007

LAB hold Sunderland West

___

0018

Labour’s Emily Thornberry has been on the BBC giving quite an extraordinary interview. Seems to be excited that she’ll be at a desk at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in a few hours by the look on her face.

Meanwhile, LAB hold Newcastle North.

___

00.28

CON hold Kettering, but swing from Con to LAB. No UKIP candidate after deal with local Tory.

Meanwhile, we have some sympathy for scriptwriters who must be having a very busy night…

___

0036

CON hold Nuneaton.

First seat to declare in our patch.

Both LAB and CON up 6%, thanks to collapse of UKIP. Very minor swing from CON to LAB.

___

0049

Many commentators making the point on TV and online that this is a divided nation.

Last year’s referendum result and this election, it seems, put it in headlights.

Leave/remain.

Generational.

Regional.

Urban/rural.

Graduates/non graduates.

etc.

All parties are going to have to think hard about the consequences in policy and campaigning terms.

___

0053

Darlington – hold for LAB.

UKIP collapse.

Minor swing to CON. The Tories would have been expecting a gain to help deliver a big majority.

___

0102

As Andrew Marr has just said on the BBC, among others, it would seem Jeremy Corbyn is very safe as Labour leader.

Who would have thought the questions will be about whether Theresa May, rather than Mr Corbyn, can last as leader for more than a few months?

___

0108

Swindon South hold for CON.

Llanelli LAB hold. Small CON swing to LAB.

LAB hold Wrexham – a disappointment to the Tories.

___

0013

LAB gain Rutherglen & Hamilton West from the SNP.

Nearly 9% swing SNP to LAB.

___

0024

LAB hold Tooting. Another potential gain missed for the Tories.

___

0126

In Birmingham, turnouts are looking up. LAB now hopeful of hanging on, even increasing their majority, in Northfield.

Edbgaston still in play for a possible Tory gain.

Results not expected until around 5.00am.

Meanwhile, Home Secretary and prominent Tory remainer Anna Soubry looking in danger of losing their seats.

Nick Clegg looks under threat from Labour in Sheffield Hallam.

Mhari Black – SNP’s youngest MP since Great Reform Act – holds her seat.

Tom Watson, Deputy Leader of LAB, holds West Bromwich East.

___

0141

LAB gain Clwyd back from CON.

Does anyone remember that poll that had Tories winning all over Wales at the start of the campaign?

___

0143

Tom Watson – Theresa May is a damaged PM and may never recover. People want hope.

___

0145

Education Secretary Justine Greening suffers 10% swing to LAB, holding on with only 1000+.

___

0150

We warned earlier it may not be sensible to read too much across from a mayoral election to a General Election.

___

0154

LAB hold Sandwell and CON hold Stratford.

LAB also hold West Bromwich West.

No surprises there.

___

0157

CON gain Angus from SNP with a 16% swing.

LAB hold onto Peter Mandelson’s old Hartlepool seat. Tories gave it a big go.

CON hold Warwickshire North with nearly 6% swing from LAB to CON.

___

0203

CON Treasury minister Jane Ellison loses her Battersea seat to LAB on a 10% swing. Big Remain area.

___

0206

LAB gain Stockton South with 5.7% swing.

Also hold Ealing Central and Action with 12% swing. Another Tory target bites the dust.

___

0215

CON hold Rugby.

___

0221

SNP’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson has lost his seat.

In our patch, Warley and Wolverhampton’s North East and South East seats are LAB holds with Cannock Chase staying CON.

The Tories also hold on in Tamworth.

___

0229

CON gain Walsall North.

___

0231

Jack Dromey hangs onto his Birmingham Erdington seat for LAB. That’s quite a result for the party.

Andrew Mitchell stays as Sutton Coldfield MP for the Conservatives.

___

0237

Sajid Javid holds Bromsgrove for CON.

CON gain Southport from Lib Dems with a 7.6% swing.

Jim Cunningham holds Coventry South.

CON gain Renfrewshire East.

Dunbartonshire East goes back to Lib Dems from SNP.

___

0245

Nick Clegg loses to Labour in Sheffield Hallam.

Clegg: We must try to reach out to each other to find common ground.

But, former deputy leader of the Lib Dems Sir Vince Cable is back in Twickenham.

___

0258

Jess Phillips retains Yardley for LAB.

LAB gain Ipswich from CON.

CON hold The Wrekin.

LAB hold Edgbaston.

LAB gain Glasgow North East from SNP.

___

0304

LAB hold Birmingham Northfield.

___

0306

Jezza has won…

his Islington North seat.

Corbyn: People have said they’ve had enough of austerity politics.

Tells May it’s enough to go.

LAB holds Birmingham Ladywood.

___

0318

Results are flooding in now.

Frankly, they’re all over the place. Parties gaining from each other. But, overall, not a great night for the Tories or SNP. Sensational for Labour, but not looking enough for a majority. Lib Dems winning some, losing some.

CON hold Solihull.

LAB hold Hall Green.

___

3.22

Mrs May has won….in Maidenhead.

May says she will seek to govern and deliver stability if the Conservatives have most seats.

Country needs a period of stability.

We’ve heard that before.

I think we can expect another election before too long folks.

___

0328

Farron survives on a topsy turvey night for the Lib Dems.

No #libdemfightback there, then.

___

0331

Humiliating result for Paul Nutall in Boston and Skegness. Only 3,000 votes. UKIP leader fails to make a mark in constituency of biggest Leave vote.

___

0333

LAB gain Warwick and Leamington from CON. Massive result.

CON retain Lichfield.

___

0336

LAB hold Birmingham Hodge Hill. Massive majority for Liam Byrne.

___

0342

Birmingham Hall Green confirmed for LAB.

___

0349

CON hold Dudley South.

LAB hold Birmingham Perry Barr.

___

0352

As my Birmingham Mail colleague Neil Elkes remarks, LAB picked up 62% of the vote in Birmingham – even better than 55% that Blair clocked up in 1997.

___

0359

Birmingham Perry Barr is also in the bag for LAB.

___

0419

Alex Salmond loses seat to CON in Gordon.

___

0424

It’s looking like a Hung Parliament.

The next few hours and days will be fascinating.

___

0425

Politics is going through seismic changes.

 

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