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GE2015: Live Results Blog

GE2015: Live Results Blog

🕔07.May 2015

Welcome to our live results blog for the General Election 2015. Chief blogger Paul Dale will be filing updates from the Birmingham count at the ICC through the night, with gossip, interviews and the all important counts. Keep checking back here, as well our twitter feed, from around 9.00pm through until dawn. Enjoy election night. 

22.14 Exit Poll shocker for Labour

In a General Election campaign marked by nothing much happening, the biggest shock of all came at the very end.

According to an exit poll, David Cameron is on his way back to Downing Street with 316 seats, almost enough for an overall majority.

Labour is forecast to win 239 seats, some 77 fewer than the Tories.

The Scottish National Party is expected to win 58 seats, wiping out Labour north of the border.

The Liberal Democrats will be down to just 10 seats if the forecast is correct.

And UKIP will end up with just two MPs.

The shock forecast reverberated around the political world, with one un-named Labour MP describing it as a massacre for his party.

What makes the prediction even more fascinating is that exit polls have proved extremely accurate in previous General Elections.

While 316 seats is at the very highest end of Conservative dreams, no one had even thought about Labour winning fewer than about 270 seats.

If the exit poll is correct, Ed Miliband’s short period as Labour leader will probably come to an abrupt end.

A YouGov exit poll gave Labour some hope, putting Ed Miliband’s party on 263 seats against 284 for the Tories and a healthier 31 for the Liberal Democrats. The SNP were on 48 and UKIP on two seats.

YouGov’s forecast, if correct, would give Mr Miliband a chance to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats, but he would also need backing from the Scottish Nationalists.

However, if the Conservatives end up being the largest party David Cameron will have the first chance to form a coalition or a partnership with other parties.

If the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll is correct, and the Tories end up with 316 seats, the results in Birmingham could be far more interesting. The Conservatives would hope to win in Northfield and perhaps Edgbaston, ousting Labour’s Richard Burden and Gisela Stuart.

22.57 Strong UKIP showing in Sunderland

Labour won in Sunderland, as expected, but the Liberal Democrat vote was almost wiped out.

Just 791 people put their cross against the Lib Dem candidate, against 8,280 for UKIP, 7,105 Conservative,21,218 Labour and 1,095 Green.

23.43 Are Farage and Balls in trouble?

Labour sources say they are confident Nigel Farage will not win in South Thanet.

Mr Farage is on the record as saying he will resign the UKIP leadership if he does not become an MP.

Meanwhile, in the Yorkshire seat of Morley and Outwood there is speculation that the shadow chancellor Ed Balls is in trouble. His majority at the last election was just 1,101 and a strong showing by the Conservatives could put that at risk.

23.54 Danny Alexander may be first big scalp of the night.

Liberal Democrat sources reporting that Danny Alexander has lost to SNP in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey.

00.26 Ashcroft poll puts Tories ahead.

Lord Ashcroft’s post-election poll (12,000 survey): CON 34%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%, SNP 5%, Others 2%.

00.48 Labour confident of winning Yardley

Although the Yardley result is a long way off, Labour sources suggest city councillor Jess Phillips has toppled Liberal Democrat John Hemming. Could be a rare glimmer of good news for Labour.

01.29 Vince Cable in trouble.

There could be a recount at Twickenham, where Vince Cable’s huge majority is under threat. A Tory win here would be a huge result for Cameron.

01.57 Nuneaton Result. 

Labour could not win in Nuneaton, a key Midland marginal, where Marcus Jones held on against Vicky Fowler. The constituency was chosen by Ed Miliband to launch his ‘save the NHS’ posters and the seat was the 38th on the Labour target list, but there was a three per cent swing to Conservatives.

2.08 Birmingham Edgbaston too close to call. 

Dr Luke Evans, Tory candidate in Birmingham Edgbaston, says result is ‘too close to call’. Labour team now looking concerned. Some talk of a recount.

2.42 Labour concerned over Edgbaston and Northfield.

Almost five hours after the polls closed and still not a single result in Birmingham.

A recount in Edgbaston is highly likely, and Northfield could go the same way.

A strong UKIP performance is apparently taking votes away from Labour in both seats.

3.15 Conservatives hold North Warwickshire

Labour could not win the most marginal Midland seat on the party’s target list despite putting up former minister Mike O’Brien who lost here in 2010. The Conservative vote actually went up.

Story of the night so far.

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